Otto Analytics
Frontier Infrastructure · Conviction Research
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July 4, 2026
Investment Memorandum · Preview
NBISNebius Group N.V.
Generated in part by an automated AI system. See disclaimer on the full report.
Thesis

Nebius is a full-stack AI cloud operator with hyperscaler-validated demand, NVIDIA as a strategic investor and co-architect, and a revenue ramp that ran 684% higher last quarter, among the fastest in infrastructure history. Deferred revenue went from near zero to $1.6B in a year, and gross margin climbed to 74%. The demand is real and the backer is the best in the business. The tension is the tape: 62 times sales, a quarter of the float sold short, and a fresh distribution break. So the only real debate is the entry.

The rest of the note answers the entry question.
The full report carries the conviction call, the eight-analyst debate, the key metrics, and the position sizing. It is the work behind where we came down and why. Available to members.
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